The World Trade Organization (WTO) has projected a slowdown in global trade growth for 2026, warning that geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility could weigh heavily on the global economy.
In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, the WTO forecasts global merchandise trade growth to ease to 1.9% in 2026, a sharp decline from the stronger-than-expected 4.6% recorded in 2025. Growth is expected to recover modestly to 2.6% in 2027 under baseline conditions.
The report notes that global trade showed resilience in 2025, supported by strong demand in emerging markets, policy support in advanced economies, and increased trade in technology-related goods. However, these factors are not expected to sustain the same level of momentum in the coming year.
A key concern highlighted by the WTO is the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which have disrupted major shipping routes and driven up global energy prices. Rising costs for crude oil and liquefied natural gas are increasing production and transportation expenses, placing additional pressure on global trade flows.
Under a downside scenario where energy prices remain elevated throughout 2026, global merchandise trade growth could slow further to just 1.4%. At the same time, global GDP growth could decline by approximately 0.3 percentage points, reflecting the broader economic impact of sustained high energy costs.
Despite these risks, the WTO emphasizes that global trade continues to demonstrate resilience. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted the role of high-technology goods, digitally delivered services, and increasingly adaptive supply chains in supporting trade activity.
Services trade is expected to remain relatively strong, with projected growth of 4.8% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027. However, this outlook could weaken if geopolitical tensions persist or global economic conditions deteriorate further.
Regionally, Asia is expected to lead global trade growth, continuing its strong contribution to international trade expansion. In contrast, North America is projected to grow at a slower pace, following earlier import surges linked to anticipated tariff changes.
The WTO also projects global GDP growth to moderate slightly, easing from 2.9% in 2025 to around 2.8% in both 2026 and 2027. However, prolonged instability could further dampen both economic activity and trade performance worldwide.
Looking ahead, the WTO highlights both risks and opportunities. A reduction in geopolitical tensions, combined with continued investment in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, could support stronger than expected trade growth, potentially reaching up to 2.4% in 2026.
Overall, the report underscores a fragile yet resilient global trading system, navigating a complex environment shaped by uncertainty, evolving supply chains, and shifting economic dynamics.