Geneva, April 2026 — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported an increased probability that an El Niño event will develop by mid-2026, signaling potential disruptions to weather patterns across the globe.
In its latest climate update, the agency highlighted growing evidence from ocean observations and climate models pointing toward a shift away from neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific. Scientists say warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are consistent with the early stages of El Niño formation.
Strengthening Forecast Signals
According to the WMO, multiple forecasting models are now in agreement, indicating a high likelihood that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July. While forecasts made early in the year can be affected by the so-called “spring predictability barrier,” the consistency across models has increased confidence in the outlook.
If current trends continue, the phenomenon could strengthen in the latter half of the year, potentially influencing global temperatures and weather extremes.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring cycle that affects atmospheric circulation and ocean temperatures. During an El Niño phase, warmer-than-average waters in the Pacific Ocean can alter jet streams and weather systems worldwide.
These shifts often lead to significant climate impacts, including heavier rainfall in some regions and prolonged droughts in others.
Potential Global Impacts
The development of El Niño in 2026 could bring wetter conditions to parts of the Americas and East Africa, while increasing the risk of drought in regions such as Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia. The event is also typically associated with a temporary rise in global average temperatures, which could compound the effects of ongoing climate change.
Emphasis on Preparedness
The WMO has urged governments and relevant agencies to prepare for possible climate disruptions, particularly in vulnerable regions where agriculture and water resources are sensitive to weather variability. Strengthening early warning systems and improving climate resilience remain key priorities.
As the situation evolves, scientists will continue to monitor ocean and atmospheric conditions closely, with more precise forecasts expected in the coming months.